2025 NFL Draft Analytically-Driven Big Board
Using the consensus big board, data, and NFL contract information to create objective draft rankings that incorporate positional value.
Below is my big board for the 2025 NFL Draft. I use the consensus big board, additional data points (age, PFF data, measurables, etc.), and NFL contract data to predict NFL outcomes for every position and create an objective positional valuation framework.
For a full write-up of my methodology, see my write-up from last year. There are a few changes/improvements from last year that I want to call out.
I’m now predicting AV per 100 games instead of raw AV
I have added prospects who were not invited to the combine and adjusted their testing numbers to the Scouting Combine environment
To gauge the value of every position, I am now looking at the $/AV point for the top 10 players at each position over the last three seasons, calculating the % of the salary cap those players account for, and translating the total $/AV to the 2025 salary cap. This should better account for any variance seen in the top 10 at each position on a year-to-year basis
This year, I have also built models for each position that predict the probability of the player becoming a Pro Bowler. This should help illustrate the difference in how the model values each player at their position compared to all players in the draft.
For example, my model gives Ashton Jeanty the highest likelihood of reaching the Pro Bowl at 78%. However, he is my 52nd-ranked player overall because the NFL has shown that it does not financially value the running back position.
One thing I want to note, I have Travis Hunter ranked twice, once at WR and once at CB. He is my top overall player with his combined value as a receiver and corner, but I thought it would be useful to rank him at both positions and see how the model views him at each position.
I will be updating my big board as consensus rankings change with public analysts finalizing their rankings before the draft.
With all that said, I hope you find some value in this approach to the draft and the different method of constructing a big board. Enjoy!