Evaluating Notre Dame's Potential Playoff Opponents

How my model would handicap the Irish and their likely 1st round opponents

As we enter conference championship weekend, Notre Dame has locked up a home playoff game, but their opponent remains uncertain. I thought it would be useful to see how my model would handicap each likely 1st round opponent and think through the different scenarios for how these matchups could occur.

Warde Manuel, chairman of the College Football Playoff committee, said earlier this week that the committee won’t reevaluate teams who aren’t playing this week. That should make assigning teams to South Bend a little easier depending on how the Big Ten and SEC shakes out.

Scenario 1: Texas wins the SEC, Oregon wins the B1G

Potential opponents: Alabama, Arizona State, Iowa State, SMU, UNLV

In this scenario, Notre Dame’s seeding will depend on how the committee chooses to handle Penn State. If they drop them to 6 and below Notre Dame, the Irish should be facing either Alabama or SMU. If SMU wins the ACC, it’ll be the Crimson Tide making the trip up north. But if Clemson can beat SMU on Saturday, there’s a chance Alabama will remain in the field over the Mustangs.

That makes a big difference in Notre Dame’s championship aspirations. Alabama is the only team my model would have favored over the Irish at home, with the difference between them and SMU greater than 25% in win probability.

However, if the Irish end up with the 5-seed in this scenario, they would have the most favorable 1st round matchup in the playoffs. My model sees Notre Dame as a double-digit favorite over Arizona State and Iowa State and a whopping 3-touchdown favorite over UNLV. The 5-seed is the best place to be in this playoff format.

Scenario 2: Texas wins the SEC, Penn State wins the B1G

Potential opponents: Alabama or SMU

This outcome should lock Notre Dame into the 6-seed. Whether it’s Alabama or SMU depends on the outcome of the ACC Championship game and possibly the whims of the committee.

Scenario 3: Georgia wins the SEC

Potential Opponents: Every team on the chart

This is the scenario where Notre Dame could fall to the 7-seed, and it depends on where the committee would rank Texas and Penn State. If the committee continues to keep Penn State ahead of the Irish and also the Longhorns should they fall to Georgia, Notre Dame would drop to 7 and likely face Indiana in a state championship game.

If Penn State wins the Big Ten, Oregon will be ahead of the Irish and cap their ceiling at the 6-seed.

But there’s also a chance Notre Dame ends up with the 5-seed if Georgia and Oregon win their conferences. Is it likely? No. Possible? Definitely.

Regardless, this is the scenario where we wouldn’t have a lot of clarity about the 1st round opponent until Selection Sunday.