Notre Dame Football: Week 12 Rooting Interest Guide

Identifying which teams can help Notre Dame's playoff chances

As we enter the final few weeks of the season, I’m going to write up a rooting interest cheat sheet and identify which games have implications on Notre Dame’s playoff odds.

I looked at games played by the Top 25 in the College Football Playoff rankings that have a spread of 14 or fewer points. The reason for this is to identify games that have a realistic chance of an upset that could help the Irish. While a Penn State loss to Purdue would do wonders for Notre Dame’s chances (CFP odds would increase to 96% and hosting odds would go up to 83%) I don’t think anyone’s going to be holding their breath during this one. The Nittany Lions are currently 28.5-point favorites.

Now let’s get to the games. According to my model, Notre Dame enters the week with a 92% chance to make the CFP (2nd highest behind Oregon) and a 75% chance to host a 1st round game (highest in the country). Let’s start with their chances of just making the CFP.

Notre Dame’s playoff chances

Barring a major upset, as mentioned above, Notre Dame has full control over their chances to make the playoff. I simulate the season 10,000 times each week, and if Notre Dame wins out my model doesn’t have them being left out even once.

As a result, the outcomes of other games really only impact the likelihood that the Irish will host a first-round matchup rather than go on the road.

Notre Dame winning this week would increase their chances of making the CFP to 95.4%

Chances of hosting in the 1st Round

There are five games this week in which the outcome has at least a 1% swing in the likelihood that Notre Dame will begin the playoff in South Bend.

That may seem small, but if Notre Dame wins out my model gives them a 99.5% chance of hosting a playoff game. A lot of the media discussion of the current playoff rankings has to do with what would happen if the playoffs started today. If we use just a little bit of foresight, a few of the teams currently in front of the Irish are likely to fall because they have to play other teams in the playoff race and will beat each other up.

Just look at these games in the next few weeks.

• Tennessee vs. Georgia

• Indiana vs. Ohio State

• Texas vs. Texas A&M

• Every game BYU plays

  • They are 2.5-point favorites at home against a 3-6 Kansas team

It’s unlikely that all of these games go the wrong way for Notre Dame. But they still need some of them to break in their favor, and that’s where the cheat sheet comes in. Here are the games with the biggest impact on Notre Dame’s first round location.

Note: The probabilities in the chart assume Notre Dame beats Virginia on Saturday.