Notre Dame vs. Duke Analytics Preview

Notre Dame doesn’t have an easy game to shake off the stink from the Ohio State game, as they travel to Durham to take on a pesky Duke team. This game has the potential to end any hopes of the College Football Playoff for the Irish, which are already on life support as they enter the game with a 2% chance of reaching the playoff.

How can they keep the dream alive? Let’s dig into the numbers.

My model has Notre Dame as only a slight favorite at -1.7 points. The Blue Devils might have a really strong defense, ranking 4th in EPA/pass and 29th in EPA/rush allowed. Granted, they haven’t played anyone with Clemson being the best offense, who ranks 65th and 81st in passing and rushing efficiency.

I think the challenge for Notre Dame is they will probably need to base their strategy around what Duke wants to take away. Maybe they can out-talent and out-physical them and it won’t matter. But adaptability is critical and they need to be able to win in multiple ways.

Everyone and their mother knows Notre Dame wants to win offensively by running the football, they have to be more willing to take advantage of Sam Hartman and his elite productivity when they have a massive advantage like they did against Ohio State.

This week’s an especially big test with Jayden Thomas and Deion Colzie banged up. One concern would be calling an even more conservative offense due to a little less depth and/or trust in their other pass catchers. In my opinion, that shouldn’t be a concern and this should be a game where we find out a lot about Chris Tyree, Jaden Greathouse, and Rico Flores Jr. Tyree and Greathouse have been Notre Dame’s most productive receivers and lead the team in yards per route run. But both have run routes on fewer than 40% of passing plays. Can they maintain their efficiency on a bigger workload is maybe the biggest question facing the offense.

On the other side of the ball, Duke doesn’t have many game-breaking playmakers. Jordan Waters has been really efficient running the football to start the year, and Jalon Calhoun and Jordan Moore have given the Blue Devils about average production as pass catchers.

But the reason to be concerned about Duke is not the playmakers, it’s Riley Leonard. He’s a good passer but not the best, although part of that may be due to the skill level around him. But he can absolutely change this game completely with his legs, as probably the best rushing quarterback in the country and just one of the best players with the ball in his hands, period.

He averages 5.68 yards after contact per attempt and has forced 19 missed tackles on only 17 carries. And Notre Dame has struggled in the past to contain rushing quarterbacks.

Against USC last year, Caleb Williams only ran 5 times but forced 4 missed tackles and averaged over 6 yards after contact. Now, the Irish don’t necessarily have to worry as much about the Blue Devils’ passing attack. And given how well the secondary contained Ohio State last week I wouldn’t be shocked if they opted for a lot of man defense on the outside with maybe a single-high safety and a spy underneath.

Zone defense could also work, but essentially someone needs to have their eyes on Leonard at all times.

Where Notre Dame should have an advantage, unlike last game, is in the trenches.

Duke hasn’t been the best team at both pass blocking and pass rushing, whereas Notre Dame has been one of the best at both. I know they haven’t gotten a lot of sacks, but they did pressure Kyle McCord on over 47% of his dropbacks.

It’s a bigger challenge tomorrow with Riley Leonard having a ton of escapability and contain will be critical, but this should be what gives the Irish the edge in this game.