Notre Dame vs. Northern Illinois Analytics Preview
A successful Saturday is a boring Saturday
Notre Dame will open their 2024 home slate tomorrow by welcoming the Northern Illinois Huskies to town. Unlike the 2022 Marshall team, an ultimately strong Group of 5 team that upset the Irish, Northern Illinois ranks 115th in my power rankings entering week 2.
The strong suit of the Huskies team is probably their rushing offense. They ranked 7th in early down EPA/play and return Antario Brown from last season. As a result, they were one of the run-heaviest teams in the country, with a -4.5% pass rate over expected (105th).
The Huskies also defended the pass well last season, ranking 10th in Early Down EPA/pass and 14th in success rate and come into the game as my 78th ranked passing defense. But they were very vulnerable on the ground, especially on late downs, and my model rates their run defense as 115th.
This should be a game where we see Riley Leonard, Jeremiyah Love, and Jadarian Price rack up some big numbers on the ground. Not that the Huskies pass defense is elite by any means, but a run defense that could be pretty leaky against this backfield could mean a big day for Irish ballcarriers.
Here are three things I’ll be watching for tomorrow.
Downfield passing development
One aspect of the offense that was intentionally missing from the Texas A&M gameplan was the downfield passing attack. Tomorrow should provide plenty of time and opportunity for Riley Leonard to target the deeper areas of the field against a less fearsome pass rush.
Especially after Marcus Freeman notably called deep passing one of Leonard’s strengths, seeing if he’s progressed at all in this area of his game will be notable.
Who is on the redshirt track
Starting next week, I’m going to keep track of the freshmen snaps and monitor who might be on their way to a redshirt and who will be burning their freshman year.
A game like this where we should hopefully see some mass substitutions in the second half will be a good first indicator of what the coaching staff is planning to do with a lot of the younger players.
Backup quarterback playing time
This is definitely the deepest quarterback room Notre Dame has had in many years. Assuming Leonard is pulled sometime in the 3rd or early 4th quarter, I’m curious as to how Freeman and Mike Denbrock will split up the rest of the reps.
Does Steve Angeli get most of the playing time to get him game reps in case he’s needed due to injury? Do we get to see the first meaningful playing time of Kenny Minchey’s career? A sneak peak into what’s in store with CJ Carr?
Any of these scenarios will be fun to watch as long as they are asked to do more than just hand the ball off.
That’s it for this week, not a big preview since it shouldn’t be much of a game. Don’t let Antario Brown get hot, bully the Huskies on the ground, and the game should go according to plan.