Notre Dame vs. Ohio State Analytics Preview
How can the Irish pull this off?
Notre Dame welcomes Ohio State to town for the most anticipated home game in quite some time. The Irish aren’t double-digit underdogs, they have an elite quarterback, and the expectation is no longer to just stay competitive but to win.
So how do they come out on top? Let’s dive into the numbers.
Where Ohio State has a clear advantage is track record of success, team talent ratings, and the wide receiver and EDGE rusher positions. Notre Dame’s come a long way from one season ago where the goal of the game was seemingly, “let’s not get embarrassed.”
With Sam Hartman under the fold, the Irish now have the quarterback advantage with one of the most prolific deep-ball throwers in the country.
Simply having Hartman under center all but offsets the skill-player advantage Ohio State has since C.J. Stroud isn’t walking through those doors. If the (now efficient) running game isn’t there for Notre Dame, Hartman can throw it 50 times a game. If the Irish get dragged into a shootout tomorrow night, Hartman can keep pace.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are a different class of players, but Notre Dame has enough quality depth in the receiving room that not having an alpha shouldn’t be detrimental.
But to allow Hartman to work his magic, the offensive line needs to give him enough time.
This chart looks at each team’s PFF Pass Rush Grade with their team pass rush win rate. Pass rush win rate isolates each player’s performance and solely tries to answer “did this player win his matchup?”
Obvious caveat that Ohio State hasn’t played anyone tough yet, but they have been very disruptive when rushing the passer even if their sack totals are low.
Conversely when we look at the allowed pressure rate and chart it against PFF Pass Block Grade, Notre Dame’s offensive line has been good but haven’t reached the elite level many were expecting. This is the biggest key offensively. Ignore the sack numbers, Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau are game wreckers and can single-handedly make Notre Dame’s life miserable offensively.
Ohio State doesn’t move them around much defensively, meaning they will be matched up with Joe Alt and Blake Fisher all night. If the big guys up front can win those matchups the Irish offense should find success.
Notre Dame is averaging the 4th most yards per attempt against man coverage (13.3) and the 8th most yards per attempt when facing zone (12.4). If Hartman has time I trust that he’ll be successful regardless of what the defense throws at him.
On the other side of the ball, Notre Dame will need to find a way to stop the dynamic Buckeye receivers without elite pass rushers. Similar to their counterparts on the offensive line, the Irish defensive line has performed well but hasn’t been tested much yet and is going up against an Ohio State unit that has dominated inferior competition so far.
Disrupting Kyle McCord’s timing and forcing him to pull his eyes down is critical to limit the damage that Harrison Jr., Egbuka, and the rest of the receiver room will inflict.
What helps is Notre Dame has corners they seem to trust in man coverage, and they’ve played man coverage on 50.7% of passing plays that resulted in an attempt, the 12th highest rate in the country. They’ve given up 5.1 yards per attempt and 2.3 yards after the catch playing man, compared to 8.2 yards and 3.9 YAC per target when playing zone.
Ohio State has only faced man coverage on 23.3% of their passing attempts this year, as teams have been rightfully scared of being burned by their receiving corps. But if Notre Dame trusts their corners to win on the outside and limit the big plays when they do get beat, they might be able to limit the Buckeye passing offense. They’re only averaging 7.3 YPA when facing man coverage, which ranks a surprising 68th in the country. They’re much better against zone coverage averaging 9.5 YPA.
Personally, I think Notre Dame needs to be comfortable challenging Ohio State with man coverage to start, and adjust if the pass rush can’t get home. Letting Ohio State face zone coverage consistently feels like death by a thousand paper cuts. Their receivers are too smart and know how to read defenses and settle into open areas in the zone. If the cornerbacks can win the outside matchups and the pass rushers can get home enough, it should negate any big plays they do give up.
But none of this matters if the run defense can’t figure it out. PFF rates the Irish run defense as 8th in the country but their tackling at 75th. The defense is in position to succeed but quite simply not finishing. It will help to have Gabriel Rubio and JD Bertrand back in the lineup, but the Ohio State running back room can punish Notre Dame if they can’t wrap up.
As for a prediction, I think my model is too low because it hasn’t caught up to Notre Dame likely having the better offense. Even though Ohio State should win this game more often than not if we played it 10,000 times, I’m expecting/predicting a win. The sizable quarterback advantage the Irish have should mask any deficiencies Ohio State can exploit in this game.