Notre Dame should have won this game.
Any discussion about this game needs to revolve around this thesis. They were the better team and outplayed Ohio State for 60 minutes. Were the players perfect? No, but in my opinion the issues stemming from this game are almost all due to coaching/strategy and because of any weaknesses on the roster that were exploited.
With that being said, let’s dive into the numbers.
Misunderstanding of the Matchup
Notre Dame received an elite performance from Sam Hartman, throwing for 0.65 EPA/Play, a 95th percentile efficiency number. With a 61% passing success rate, this should have been a game Hartman lit up the scoreboard and the Irish made a statement that this year is different.
It didn’t matter because Notre Dame actually threw less often than they did in the 2022 matchup.
In 2022, with Tyler Buchner under center, Notre Dame had a 44% overall pass rate and a -3.9% pass rate over expected.
In 2023, with elite quarterback Sam Hartman in the fold, Notre Dame had a 39% overall pass rate and a -4.2% pass rate over expected.
What. In. The. World.
I don’t care how highly you think of your running game, if you have an elite quarterback and aren’t trying to throw it around the field, especially against elite competition, you are completely wasting the most valuable resource in the sport.
And on a day where Notre Dame chose to be run-heavy, they didn’t even use play action to at least try and take advantage of the second-level defenders.
The receivers were winning downfield and they drew a couple penalties on the Buckeye defensive backs as well (and probably should have gotten a few more). Hartman was 4 for 7 for 78 yards on throws over 10 yards downfield, as well as the defensive holding and pass interference penalties he helped draw.
And Hartman was, predictably, much more productive and efficient than Kyle McCord. But while Ohio State couldn’t match Notre Dame’s passing efficiency, they could make up for the deficit with volume and throwing more often. It took until the second half for the Buckeyes to figure it out but it wasn’t too late because Notre Dame didn’t score until the 3rd quarter.
Despite a big efficiency advantage, Notre Dame finished with 15 expected points added from passing, a small lead over Ohio State at 12.9. Factor in that Notre Dame ran more often averaging negative EPA than the Buckeyes, and Ohio State finished the game with more expected points added, 12.9 to 11.7.
The issue isn’t that the running game was super ineffective and setting the offense back. It’s that they left points and scoring opportunities on the field by not taking advantage of an elite passing performance from their elite quarterback.
This is the type of game you recruit Sam Hartman for. This is the type of game where with the massive quarterback advantage you call his number as often as you can.
Instead, a commitment to being a run-first, clock controlling team did exactly what it needed to and added variance to the game. It helped the worse team (Ohio State) hang around and capitalize on high variance plays on their way to a win. 2022 Notre Dame mucked up the game but didn’t have the offensive talent 2023 Ohio State does, even if it’s not up to their elite level of recent years.
There aren’t a few playcalls that we can point to and say “if they threw here, Notre Dame would have won.” It’s more that the mindset of the team was “we can’t get into a shootout with Ohio State” when Notre Dame had the ultimate trump card in Sam Hartman.
I mean, how much more could Ohio State have produced? They threw 37 times in the game and Kyle McCord completed 56.8% of his passes. Emeka Egbuka had a really good game with 7 catches for 96 yards but they limited the dangerous Marvin Harrison Jr. to only 3 for 32.
And on early downs, Ohio State averaged -0.15 EPA/pass. Almost all of their production came on third and fourth downs, and the defense gave up 17 points, a really good performance overall!
Therein lies the problem with how Notre Dame approached this game offensively. We don’t know what the coaches truly thought of themselves, but they mucked this game up and let the inferior team hang around and capitalize on high variance plays to pull it off at the end. Except, for the first time in a long time, they were not the team that needed to do that and the concern is they may have thought they had to.
And I get that there were concerns about Ohio State’s pass rush and they were indeed dominant. Hartman was under pressure on 50% of his dropbacks, with JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer each generating 4 pressures. That’s a really high number and generally unsustainable, but I would guess that Notre Dame’s generally predictable playcalling made it easier for the Buckeye pass rushers to pin their ears back and get to the quarterback on clear passing downs.
But here’s the thing, Kyle McCord was under pressure on 47.6% of his dropbacks himself. But they were more willing to throw despite that challenge and were rewarded.
Any defense of how Notre Dame approached this game offensively shouldn’t matter because they scored 14 points.
14.
And 7 of those points came on a drive where Sam Hartman went 3 for 4 for 55 yards and a touchdown pass, and generated 10 more yards on a defensive pass interference penalty.
Notre Dame was winning downfield with their elite quarterback. They chose not to make Ohio State keep up and it backfired.
Decision Making Errors
I’m not going to rehash the 10 men on the field discussion. It’s incompetence and everyone knows it.
But I think there were three key points in the game where Notre Dame made critical mistakes that added up.
Q2 14:13, 3rd & 5 ND on the OSU 29. Sam Hartman’s pass is incomplete to Holden Staes.
Notre Dame has not taken advantage of defenses expecting pass on 3rd & mediums in field goal territory this year, and I believe they continue to misplay this situation. This came up in the NC State game as well, but this is an area where the offense should be willing to use all 4 downs and doesn’t necessarily need to gain a first down on this play.
In both games, the defense showed a light box that looked favorable for a potential run that at the very least could pick up 3-4 yards and make it a much clearer 4th down attempt. I don’t know if Hartman has the ability to check to a run or not, or if the team is not even thinking about this strategically. But in this game, the running back was motioned out of the backfield and Notre Dame was in an empty look. Ohio State showed blitz but simulated pressure and only brought 4 and immediately forced Sam Hartman into an ill-advised throw that should have been intercepted.
This may feel like a small mistake, but in a game where Notre Dame was ultra-conservative passing to begin with and ultimately scored 14 points it was a costly one.
I want to clarify this doesn’t always mean set up a 4th down attempt. If the downfield options are there, take them. But Ohio State was expecting pass and in a look where Notre Dame could have taken advantage with a run. The pressure got home immediately and the coverage was great, and Notre Dame felt fine settling for a 47 yard field goal attempt with a kicker who has been struggling from distance (and is still a college kicker).
Even though they didn’t gain any yards, it was still a clear go for it scenario on 4th & 5. Knowing this ahead of time—and actually following through on it—let’s the offensive coordinator change their strategy. Knowing you don’t need a first down on 3rd down opens up much more of the playbook in a situation where Ohio State is thinking pass.
First critical mistake of the game.
Q4 2:24, 3rd & 15 ND on the ND 29. Gi’Bran Payne rushes for 3 yards.
This is pitiful. A first down ends the game and Notre Dame chose to run the ball despite having an elite quarterback who’s been playing really well in this game.
And let’s just think through what happens if Notre Dame throws an interception and gives Ohio State a shorter field.
They still have an opportunity to stop them. And if they do score, it likely will take less time off the clock and give the Irish a chance to score themselves outside of a lateral play that never works. And in that scenario, Notre Dame likely only needs 3 points.
Instead, they run the ball, the defense can’t come up with a stop, and Ohio State scores with 1 second remaining, absolute worst case scenario.
Even if Ohio State somehow gets a pick-6 on this play, Notre Dame has 2 minutes left and Sam freaking Hartman to go down and get 3 to tie or 6 to win.
This is playing scared and taking a big risk, and not at all what Marcus Freeman was talking about all week.
Q4 0:51 Timeout #2 by Notre Dame. Previous play: Kyle McCord incomplete pass.
Why in the world would you give the Buckeyes time to scheme up a play. They can’t call a timeout because they need it to stop the clock. YOU shouldn’t call a timeout because you may need it to stop the clock or save yourself later (10 men on the field).
And again, let’s say Ohio State scores a touchdown on this very play. You have Sam freaking Hartman, two timeouts, and 51 seconds to go score 3 or 6. And you have proof of concept that he can execute the two-minute offense the entire first month of the season.
Notre Dame consistently did not think any further ahead than one play. The players shouldn’t. The coaches absolutely need to and their lack of foresight was costly.
One you shouldn’t have 10 players on the field coming out of a timeout. Inexcusable. But they could have saved themselves if they didn’t burn one on “the biggest play of the game” that became maybe the 5th biggest play of the game 10 minutes later.
This game was Notre Dame’s to lose. And even with the conservative game plan that took the ball out of Sam Hartman’s hands, there were still moments where had Notre Dame made a different decision the outcome goes their way.
If they make the correct decision in each of these scenarios it doesn’t necessarily guarantee a win. Ohio State converted a 3rd & 10, a 4th & 7, and a 3rd & 19 (against a defense that didn’t defend the sticks, to be fair). High variance plays are high variance.
But the greater point is the coaches failed to put their players in the best position to win the entire night.
Marvin Harrison Jr. had 3 catches. Sam Hartman had a 95th percentile passing efficiency. Ohio State couldn’t move the ball on early downs.
And all of that went to waste. A missed opportunity that should hurt for a while.
Because it sucks, it really sucks.