Notre Dame vs. Stanford Analytics Preview

Which Stanford team will we see?

Notre Dame takes on Stanford in the regular season finale tomorrow. The Cardinal have been a mixed bag this year, alternating between highly competitive and walkthrough for their opponent week-to-week. Which one will we see tomorrow? Let’s dive into the numbers.

Dominate through the air and on the ground

Stanford probably has the worst pass rush in the Power 5. This isn’t hyperbole.

An inability to get pressure on the quarterback has contributed to allowing 0.27 EPA/pass this year, 128th in the country. We are far removed from the Stanford teams of the 2010s, who won with strong defense and a ground-and-pound offense. This team is about as porous as it gets on the defensive side of the ball.

If you look at where Pitt and Wake Forest appear on this chart and remember what Sam Hartman did to their defenses, that’s the type of game we should expect from the passing offense.

Not only can they not stop the pass, but they also allow 0.16 EPA/rush, good for 123rd in the country. If there was ever a game where Audric Estime could take out his frustrations with the Doak Walker voters, it’s this one.

Offensively, this is a game where Notre Dame’s final point total should primarily be dictated by how well or poorly they perform given the disparate skill difference. Just look at the point totals for similarly talented teams facing Stanford this year.

• USC: 56

• Oregon: 42

• Washington: 42

• Oregon State: 62

It’s not exaggerating to say if Notre Dame doesn’t hit 40 points something went wrong.

Contain Ashton Daniels and Elic Ayomanor

Stanford’s offense really runs through two players in Daniels and Ayomanor. Daniels has put together a respectable season under center, averaging 0.10 EPA/pass with a 66.2 PFF grade. It’s not remarkable by any means but it’s a level of competency that teams like Pitt and Wake Forest simply didn’t have. Daniels also is a capable runner, which Notre Dame hasn’t had to defend other than Duke’s Riley Leonard.

Ayomanor has been one of the most productive receivers in the country this year ranking 66th in yards per route run. But he doesn’t have much help from his fellow pass catchers in softening the load.

Containing Ayomanor has to be the top priority. He’s shown the ability to take over games this year and can be a game-wrecker if he’s not neutralized.

• Colorado

  • 18 targets

  • 13 catches

  • 294 yards

  • 3 touchdowns

• UCLA

  • 12 targets

  • 8 catches

  • 86 yards

  • 0 touchdowns

• Washington

  • 13 targets

  • 10 catches

  • 159 yards

  • 1 touchdown

Fortunately, Notre Dame has the best pass defense Stanford will have seen this year. They now rank 2nd in the country in EPA/pass allowed at -0.22 and have shut down more potent passing attacks this year.

Stanford’s pass blocking should also give us confidence that the defense will be able to win on this side of the ball. And while Ashton Daniels doesn’t turn a lot of his pressures into sacks (13.0%, 39th lowest rate), Notre Dame should be able to consistently put pressure on him and generate a few sacks and/or force the Cardinal into negative plays.

And Stanford won’t have an elite rushing attack to lean on should things go south through the air. They rank 96th in EPA/rush, with every running back averaging negative EPA/play.

Realistically, the only way Stanford wins this game is if Ashton Daniels has the game of his life and puts the team on his back (along with probably some turnovers or high-variance plays from the defense).

My model has this game closer than the -26 spread, but I think it’s wrong for the reasons I laid out here. Expect some Steve Angeli in the second half. Go Irish.