Notre Dame vs. Wake Forest Analytics Preview
Notre Dame hosts the Sam Hartman revenge bowl tomorrow as they welcome Wake Forest to South Bend for the home finale. This game shouldn’t be much of a challenge for the Irish but we can still find a few areas to watch.
Can Sam Hartman take advantage of the Wake Forest pass defense?
The Demon Deacons are much better stopping the run than the pass. They allow -0.04 EPA/rush (33rd) compared to 0.05 EPA/pass (76th). Hartman should have plenty of time in the pocket, with the Wake Forest pass rush ranking 109th in team pass rush win rate at 6.9%. Even though the passing attack has struggled in some of the bigger games it’s taken advantage of the inferior competition. I think we could see a similar performance from Hartman as we did in the Pitt game, who ranks 117th in pass rush win rate.
Wake Forest has decent weapons. Can the quarterback get them the ball?
Michael Kern is going to take over for Mitch Griffis as the starting quarterback, who has struggled mightily this year. Here are Griffis’ ranks on the season, out of 162 qualifying quarterbacks.
PFF Grade: 150th
Big Time Throw rate: 156th
Turnover Worthy Play rate: 160th
Pressure to sack rate: 162nd
EPA/play: 128th
As much as you may think Sam Hartman has disappointed, it’s pretty easy to see the value he brings to the table when you look at it through the context of the 2023 Wake Forest season.
While Griffis has been tough to watch, Kern might not be much of an upgrade. He only has 100 career dropbacks in 5 years of college football, a signal that there probably isn’t much upside there. And while his career numbers are better than the replacement-level performance Wake Forest has gotten this season, it’s not by much. Here’s where Kern’s total career output would rank this season.
Big Time Throw rate: 48th
Turnover Worthy Play rate: 156th
Pressure to sack rate: 98th
We’re still talking about a small sample, but if that were to translate tomorrow we would expect 1-2 more impressive throws, the same risk-taking profile as Griffis, and instead of being sacked at the highest rate under pressure a below-average clip.
That doesn’t necessarily inject fear into the opposition, which is why Notre Dame is the massive (-24.5) favorite that it is. Which is a shame because the Demon Deacons have two quality weapons in Jahmal Banks and Ke’Shawn Williams who, while turning in productive seasons, have seen their efficiency drop with the change in quarterbacks. Banks and Williams have seen their yards per route run drop from 2.29 and 2.15 to 1.72 and 1.65 this year.
And the Demon Deacons don’t have a strong running game to lean on, with Demond Claiborne and Justice Ellison both averaging negative EPA/play and the lead back Claiborne posting a subpar 34% success rate. This is despite having the fifth-best PFF run-blocking grade in the country. If the Notre Dame defense can neutralize what should be a run-heavy Wake Forest attack with an inexperienced quarterback under center it should be a stress-free day on the defensive side of the ball.
My model makes this game closer to Notre Dame -21, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a similar game as we did against Pittsburgh. Might not be as big of a blowout since we shouldn’t expect multiple defensive/special teams touchdowns but given the big talent deficit and what should be a hyper-motivated Sam Hartman, this game should be over by halftime, or else something went terribly wrong.