Ranking the Playoff Quarterbacks
Combining my soon to be released Wins Above Replacement model and PFF grade to see how the signal-callers stack up
Before the playoffs get started in a couple of days, I decided it would be a fun exercise to rank/tier the playoff quarterbacks. I did so by indexing the rankings of my Wins Above Replacement (WAR) metric I’ve been working on (more on that below) and PFF offense grade. This should provide a good look at both the on-field production of each player (WAR) and how they did from more of a film perspective (PFF grade). But first, some quick thoughts on my WAR metric.
For the last couple of months, I’ve been working on a WAR model to try and prescribe a single-number value to every player’s on-field production. It’s not yet ready to be fully released, but I feel confident enough in the quarterback valuations (my WAR value is more predictive year-to-year than PFF overall grade) to incorporate it into these rankings as a soft-launch of sorts.
For context, here are the top 5 Power 5 quarterback seasons since 2015 according to my model.
2023 Jayden Daniels
2019 Joe Burrow
2018 Kyler Murray
2023 Bo Nix
2017 Lamar Jackson
That’s a pretty good start for the model. There will probably be some changes before I fully release this as I fine-tune the model, but for now I feel comfortable incorporating it into some analysis.
And with that, here are my quarterback rankings as well as how I would separate the rankings into tiers below. I included Carson Beck in case he’s able to play but also to allow for comparison with Gunner Stockton.
Tier 1: The Pac-12 Memorial
Dillon Gabriel and Sam Leavitt are the top two quarterbacks in the tournament per WAR. They have also both been highly efficient, ranking 6th and 4th in EPA/play among the playoff QBs.
They have the two lowest Turnover-Worthy Play rates in the tournament and are great at avoiding sacks. However, they also have the 2nd and 3rd lowest Big Time Throw rates in the field, with only Boise State’s Maddux Madsen ranking behind them.
Tier 2: Efficient with a Potential Fatal Flaw
Kurtis Rourke and Drew Allar make up my second tier as highly productive quarterbacks who may have a fatal flaw, be it their own or their team’s.
Rourke leads the tournament in EPA/play at 0.38 and has been highly productive in his lone season in Bloomington. But there are some red flags in his game that could prove costly in a single-elimination format.
He has a 25.9% pressure-to-sack rate this year coming off a knee injury last season. That’s the 3rd-highest mark in the field and also the 23rd-highest among all quarterbacks in the country. He’s also fumbled 7 times on 31 rushing attempts and could be vulnerable to getting stripped in the pocket as well as taking too many sacks.
Against the two best defenses he faced this year (Michigan and Ohio State), Rourke took 9 sacks on 17 pressures and fumbled twice. He and Indiana have been explosive enough to outrun their problems, but will they be able to do so in a tournament full of quality teams?
As for Allar, his potential fatal flaw might be his offensive line. Penn State has the highest pressure rate allowed in the playoffs and PFF’s 2nd lowest PFF team pass blocking grade. While he’s great at avoiding sacks (10.6% pressure-to-sack rate), it may be tough to have to play under constant duress over four consecutive games.
Tier 3: The Vets
Cade Klubnik, Will Howard, Kevin Jennings, and Riley Leonard make up my next tier. All are more veteran guys in their 3rd, 4th, or 5th year of college football and have been very productive but not thought of as stars.
Klubnik has the highest big time throw rate of the group, Howard the best EPA/play, Jennings the most efficient under pressure, and Leonard is the best rushing quarterback in the country.
Tier 4: Decent Players
Maddux Madsen and Carson Beck make up the 4th tier. Madsen has been very efficient, has the lowest pressure-to-sack rate and appears to protect the football well with only 3 interceptions on the season. However, that is misleading as he has the 2nd highest Turnover Worthy Play rate (16 plays) and should probably “deserves” 8 picks, which is why he gets dinged by WAR and PFF grade.
Beck was not able to sustain the success he had in 2023 after losing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey to the NFL. While his Big Time Throw rate has actually increased this year (3.8% to 4.8%), he’s become more careless with the ball and takes more sacks, sporting the third-highest Turnover Worthy Play rate and increasing his pressure-to-sack rate from 13.8% to 17.1%
Tier 5: Former 5-Stars and a Backup
Nico Iamaleava, Quinn Ewers, and Gunner Stockton make up the 5th tier.
Iamaleava had a solid season in his first year as a starting quarterback but was maybe not as prolific as some people expected. He has the highest pressure-to-sack rate at 26.3%, which is also the 15th-worst mark among FBS quarterbacks. He hasn’t been a super efficient runner, averaging 0.08 EPA/rush (38th percentile) and has fumbled 9 times on only 69 carries.
Ewers was not able to build off of his 2023 season, going from potential first round pick to possibly getting pushed out and needing a new school because of Arch Manning. He also takes a lot of sacks, with the 4th-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the field at 22.6%. And he doesn’t have the rushing upside to offset some of that damage, with only 28 attempts on the year, along with 8 fumbles.
But the biggest concern seems to be that the passing upside has disappeared. In 2022, Ewers ranked 22nd in the country in Big Time Throw rate in his first season as Texas’ quarterback. That came along with a fairly high 3.6% Turnover Worthy Play rate and he only completed 58% of his passes, but you could write that off as the cost of doing business.
In 2023, Ewers did a much better job of protecting the football—even though he threw the same number of interceptions—dropping his Turnover Worthy Play rate to 1.7%. This was the 6th lowest rate in the country, where the previous year he had the 69th highest. He also bumped his completion percentage up to 68% in the process while lowering his aDOT from 10.5 (35th highest) to 8.4 (121st). But his Big Time Throw rate was cut in half in the process, falling to 3.9% (101st). Still, this season helped lead Texas to the College Football Playoff so again easy to attribute these changes as reasons for the Longhorns’ success.
This year, his aDOT is even lower at 7.4 (143rd out of 154), his Big Time Throw rate is exactly the same, but his Turnover Worthy Play rate has surpassed his 2022 number at 4.2% (111th). He’s returned to putting the ball back in harms way but isn’t producing enough Big Time Throws to offset it. Combined with not much rushing upside and a penchant for taking sacks and that’s the reason he finds himself as my lowest-rated starting QB.
Gunner Stockton rounds out the list. We don’t know a ton about him but he has a 19% pressure-to-sack rate on 62 career dropbacks, which is slightly higher than Beck’s 2024 number. He was used as a runner in the SEC Championship game and has averaged 6.0 YPC on 18 career attempts. But as a career backup up to this point, there’s nowhere else to slot him except for here, but that could change should Georgia win their quarterfinal matchup against Notre Dame or Indiana and he has a strong performance.