2025 NFL Draft: Looking at where my model diverges the most from consensus

Taking a look at the players at each position my model is higher/lower on compared to the consensus big board

This is my second year producing a big board for the NFL Draft from a data-driven perspective. I didn’t have time to do this last year before the draft but I wanted to look into the players my model diverges the most from consensus, using Arif Hasan's consensus big board as the comparison.

Because I incorporate positional-value via contract data into my rankings, some positions will have natural inflation/deflation for every player. For example, quarterbacks will appear much higher on my big board than almost every other board, while running backs are pushed further down.

To prevent this list from just becoming every quarterback and running back, I’ve decided to look at how my rankings diverge within each position group instead.

Note: I use the positional designations from Dane Brugler’s The Beast, it is not the model’s projection of where a player would be best suited to play in the NFL. Most applicable for offensive linemen (tackle vs. interior).

Quarterback

Model is higher than consensus

• Riley Leonard

  • My board: QB5

  • Consensus board: QB10

• Seth Henigan

  • My board: QB6

  • Consensus board: Unranked

Model is lower than consensus

• Tyler Shough

  • My board: QB11

  • Consensus board: QB5

• Will Howard

  • My board: QB13

  • Consensus board: QB6

Running Back

Model is higher than consensus

• Brashard Smith

  • My board: RB11

  • Consensus board: RB18

Model is lower than consensus

• Jordan James

  • My board: RB19

  • Consensus board: RB13

Wide Receiver

Model is higher than consensus

• Luther Burden

  • My board: WR1

  • Consensus board: RB4

• Tetairoa McMillan

  • My board: WR3

  • Consensus board: WR1

Tight End

Model is higher than consensus

• Colston Loveland

  • My board: TE1

  • Consensus board: TE2

• Harold Fannin Jr.

  • My board: TE2

  • Consensus board: TE5

Model is lower than consensus

• Tyler Warren

  • My board: TE3

  • Consensus board: TE1

Offensive Tackle

Model is lower than consensus

• Josh Simmons

  • My board: OT9

  • Consensus board: OT4

Interior Offensive Line

Model is higher than consensus

• Tate Ratledge

  • My board: IOL1

  • Consensus board: IOL5

• Jared Wilson

  • My board: IOL2

  • Consensus board: IOL6

Model is lower than consensus

• Tyler Booker

  • My board: IOL8

  • Consensus board: IOL1

EDGE

Model is higher than consensus

• David Walker

  • My board: EDGE10

  • Consensus board: EDGE21

Model is lower than consensus

• Shemar Stewart

  • My board: EDGE8

  • Consensus board: EDGE4

Defensive Tackle

Model is higher than consensus

• Deone Walker

  • My board: DT7

  • Consensus board: DT12

Linebacker

Model is higher than consensus

• Jailin Walker

  • My board: LB9

  • Consensus board: Unranked

Model is lower than consensus

• Jack Kiser

  • My board: LB19

  • Consensus board: LB9

Cornerback

Model is higher than consensus

• Benjamin Morrison

  • My board: CB1

  • Consensus board: CB7

Model is lower than consensus

• Travis Hunter

  • My board: CB2

  • Consensus board: CB1

Safety

Model is higher than consensus

• Kevin Winston Jr.

  • My board: S2

  • Consensus board: S4